房价调控、社保扩面能促进居民消费吗?  

Can Controlling Housing Price and Expanding the Coverage of Social Insurance Promote Household Consumption?

作　　者：赵伟[1] 李跟强[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第3期22-29,138,共8页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"城市偏向;市场选择;社会资本与中国城乡经济关系演进"(09CJL013);教育部人文社科项目"公共租赁住房配租机制研究"(12YJC790061)

摘　　要：高房价是抑制还是促进了消费?在考虑到社会保险因素时结果是否会有差异?本文采用全国30个省市区1999-2011年的面板数据,考察了房价、社会保险与居民消费之间的关系。研究结果表明在购房支出负担重的区域预期房价与居民消费负相关,高房价会抑制消费,即表现为挤出效应;社会保险参与率的提高能促进居民消费,但房价的上升显著减弱了社会保险促进消费的能力。在购房支出负担轻的区域,当期房价与居民消费呈正相关,房价上涨会促进消费,即表现为财富效应;社会保险参与率的提高能促进居民消费,而房价不会对社会保险促进消费的功能造成显著影响。Based on the panel data of 30provinces from 1999to 2011,this paper studies the relationship between housing price,social insurance and household consumption.We find that in the area with heavy housing payment burden,the expected housing price inhibits consumption(that is,crowding-out effect),and the expansion of the coverage of social insurance can significantly promote consumption,but rising housing price sharply weakens this ability of social insurance;however,in the area with light housing payment burden,current housing price can promote household consumption(that is,wealth effect),and expanding the coverage of social insurance can also significantly promote consumption,but housing price does not have a marked impact on the function of social insurance.

关 键 词：居民消费 高房价 社会保险 区域差异 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]