矿产品价格冲击下的资源型区域经济增长波动研究——基于山西与全国的比较  

Study on Fluctuation of Economic Growth in Resource-based Regions under the Price Shock of Minerals:Through Comparison between Shanxi and the National

作　　者：赵康杰[1] 景普秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学资源型经济转型发展研究院

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第3期50-59,139,共10页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"资源型区域破解经济发展与环境约束难题对策研究:基于矿业收益视角"(10AJL009);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目"资源型区域转型发展的路径与对策研究"(NCET-10-0924);山西省教育厅人文社科基地项目"山西资源型经济转型评价研究"(2013327)

摘　　要：经济增长短期波动强烈是山西、内蒙古等资源型区域的典型特征,经济波动强烈对长期稳定发展会产生不利影响。在分析资源型区域经济增长强烈波动及其福利损失的基础上,着重从矿产品价格冲击的视角对资源型区域经济增长波动进行解释。通过山西与全国的比较发现,资源型省份山西经济增长波动强度高于全国,而且资源型区域经济增长波动造成了长期增长缓慢、消费需求不足而预防性储蓄过多、收入差距与失业问题突出等方面的福利损失。对于资源型区域经济增长波动强烈的原因,研究发现煤炭价格波动是导致资源型省份山西经济波动强烈的原因,煤炭价格波动通过价格直接效应、投资效应、资源依赖效应带来山西经济增长波动强烈。最后指出平抑资源型区域经济增长波动可以采取的措施:一是建立稳定基金制度调节矿产品成本构成,二是制定资源型区域"负面清单"明确投资领域,三是根源上要实现产业多元化摆脱资源依赖。The short-term fierce fluctuation of economic growth is typical of Shanxi,Inner Mongolia and other resource-based regions and it adversely affects the long-term stable development.Based on the analysis of fierce fluctuation of economic growth and the welfare loss in resource-based regions,this paper explores the reasons behind the fierce fluctuation from the perspective of the price shock of minerals.Through comparison between Shanxi and the national,we find that the fluctuation of economic growth in Shanxi is stronger that that of the national,and the fluctuation in resource-based regions causes welfare loss,such as the long-term slow growth,lack of consumer demand but excessive precautionary savings,income inequality and unemployment problem,etc..The study shows the fluctuation of coal price leads to the fluctuation of economic growth in Shanxi through price direct effect,investment effect,and resource dependency effects.Finally the paper points out that measures for stabilizing the fluctuation of economic growth in resource-based regions can be taken in three steps:the first is to establish stabilization fund to adjust the cost structure of minerals,the second is to make a'negative list'to specify investment areas in resourcebased regions,and the third is to achieve industrial diversification at source to break away from resource dependency.

关 键 词：资源型区域 资源诅咒 经济波动 价格冲击 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]