改进的投影寻踪技术在实际预报中的应用  

The Improved Projection and Pursuit Forecasting Technology for the Mid-term Inflow Forecasting

作　　者：吴成明[1] 王婷乐[1] 姚维为[1] 董文静[1] 刘溪[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2014年第2期7-10,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41101511)

摘　　要：针对传统的投影寻踪技术中投影与寻踪两个核心问题进行改进,用实数编码的遗传算法代替高斯—牛顿进行投影方向优化、利用非线性参数Hermite多项式代替非参数方法估计岭函数,建立基于改进的投影寻踪预测技术水电站入库流量预报模型,并将模型用于杂谷脑流域水电站的入库流量预测,研究表明改进的投影寻踪技术能够以较快速度收敛于模型全局最优解,研究成果为杂谷脑梯级水电站中期调度奠定了基础,也为其他流域水电站中期入库流量预报提供了重要借鉴。In this paper, two core issues of the traditional forecasting technology, projection and pursuit, are improved. The real-coded Genetic Algorithms, which insteads of the Gauss-Newton method, is used to optimize the projection direction. And the nonlinear parameter Hermite polynomial, which takes the place of non-parametric method, is used to estimate the ridge function. The plant inflow forecasting model which is established on the basis of the improved projection and pursuit forecasting technology is applied to the inflow forecasting of Zagunao basin hydropower station. The study indicates that the improved Projection and Pursuit technology can converge to the global optimal solutions at a faster rate. The foundation of the interim scheduling of Zagunao cascade hydropower stations and the important reference of the mid-term inflow forecasting of other basins plant are provided by the research result.

关 键 词：梯级水电站 入库流量 投影寻踪 遗传算法 预测 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]