我国重要农产品价格异常波动情报预警分析  

Early warning analysis on abnormal fluctuation information of key agricultural products' price in China

作　　者：康艺之 方伟 林伟君 

机构地区：[1]广东省农科院农业经济与农村发展研究所,广东广州501640

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2014年第7期200-203,共4页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(11CTQ024);广东省农业科学院院长基金(粤农科201119)

摘　　要：采用黑色预警方法,以价格波动率为警情指标,CPI月度波动率平均值1～2倍标准差确定警限,建立我国重要农产品价格异常波动预警模型并展开预警分析.结果显示,2013年我国稻米价格异常波动较少,猪肉和鸡蛋价格异常波动较为剧烈.最后提出需从加快农业科技研发、加快农资市场整治、降低农[业生产成本以及完善农产品消费市场宏观调控能力等方面出台政策,以保证农产品市场健康发展.By black early-warning model, this paper analyzed the abnormal fluctuations of key agricultural product＇s price information in China by using the prices fluctuation rate as the warning condition index, as well as using the 1-2 times standard deviation of the average CPI monthly fluctuation rate as the warning limit. The results showed that, in 2013, there was less abnormal price fluctuation of rice industry, but ferrous price fluctuation of pork and egg industries. Therefore, in order to keep the healthy development of agricultural products market, we should decrease the production cost and increase the macro-control ability of agricultural products market, we still need to accelerate the agricultural scientific ＆ technology research and the agricultural means of production market regulation, etc.

关 键 词：重要农产品价格 异常波动 黑色预警 

分 类 号：S-058[农业科学] F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]