Integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness for groundwater contamination risk assessment in a little town, Central China  

作　　者：祝慧娜 袁兴中 梁婕 刘永德 尹娟 江洪炜 黄华军 

机构地区：[1]School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,Henan University of Technology [2]College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Hunan University [3]Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control of Ministry of Education (Hunan University) [4]School of Management Science and Engineering,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

出　　处：《Journal of Central South University》2014年第3期1044-1050,共7页中南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Projects(51039001,51009063) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China;Project(SX2010-026) supported by State Council Three Gorges Project Construction Committee Executive Office,China;Project(2012BS046) supported by Henan University of Technology,China;Project(BYHGLC-2010-02) supported by the Guangzhou Water Authority,China

摘　　要：An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of "vulnerability" and "hazard". To calculate the value of "vulnerability", pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment(MRA) model was established to analyze the level of "hazard". The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The "vulnerability" and "hazard" were divided into five categories of "high", "medium-high", "medium", "low-medium" and "low", respectively. Then, "vulnerability" and "hazard" were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of ＂vulnerability＂ and ＂hazard＂. To calculate the value of ＂vulnerability＂, pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment （MRA） model was established to analyze the level of ＂hazard＂. The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ＂vulnerability＂ and ＂hazard＂ were divided into five categories of ＂high＂, ＂medium-high＂, ＂medium＂, ＂low-medium＂ and ＂low＂, respectively. Then, ＂vulnerability＂ and ＂hazard＂ were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.

关 键 词：integrated evaluation RANDOMNESS FUZZINESS modified health risk assessment uncertainty MANGANESE 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]