中国与美国经常账户的转折点、均衡、错位及其矫正  

Turning Point, Equilibrium, Misalignment and Correction of Current Accounts of China and U.S.

作　　者：黄万阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第5期65-74,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题实证研究"(11BJY014);辽宁省教育厅项目"钓鱼岛争端与日元贬值背景下辽宁对日经贸发展问题实证研究"(W2013221)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于中国和美国的基本经济要素构建中国与美国经常账户的均衡模型及其误差修正模型,研究中国与美国经常账户的均衡、错位及其矫正。研究表明:中国与美国经常账户分别于2007、2006年达到转折点。中国和美国的基本经济要素对中国与美国经常账户有重要的长期和短期影响,美国的基本经济要素对中国对外平衡存在长期和短期溢出效应,中国的基本经济要素对美国对外平衡存在长期和短期的溢出效应。2007-2011年,中国与美国经常账户的均衡水平呈上升趋势。2010-2011年,中国经常账户低于均衡水平,美国经常账户接近均衡水平。Based on the equilibrium and misalignment correction models of current accounts of China and the US constructed on economic fundamentals of the two countries, this paper studies the turning point, equilibrium, misalignment and correction of the accounts. The study results show： the current accounts of China and the US attained their turning points respectively in 2007 and 2006; economic fundamentals of China and the US have significant long-term and short-term effects on both countries＇ current accounts： the US economic funda- mentals have a long-term and short-term spillover effect on the foreign equilibri- um of China＇ s current account, and China＇s economic fundamentals have a long-term and short-term spillover effect on the foreign equilibrium of the US current account; during 2007-2011, the equilibrium level of the current accounts of China and the US took on an increasing trend; during 2010-2011, China＇s cur- rent account was lower than its equilibrium level and the US current account was close to its equilibrium level.

关 键 词：经常账户 转折点 均衡 错位 矫正 

分 类 号：F832.63[经济管理—金融学]