中国出口产品技术结构变迁及其成因:基于国际比较的研究  

The Changes and Causes of China's Export Technology Structure: Research Based on International Comparison

作　　者：安礼伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2014年第2期83-92,共10页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"中国对外贸易不平衡发展趋势研究"(项目编号:10BJY079)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：提升出口产品技术结构是我国对外贸易发展的重要方向,本文以国际比较为视角,对中国出口产品技术结构变迁的趋势和特征进行了分析,并对技术结构变迁的影响因素进行了实证研究。从变化趋势看,与其他国家相比,中国出口产品技术结构在样本期得以较快改善,但2005年以后出现稳定的趋势。中国出口产品技术结构提升主要得益于电子信息产业出口比重的提高,而汽车与工程机械等产业贡献较小。国际面板数据实证表明,相较于其他国家,经济全球化对中国出口产品技术结构提升的作用显著大于其他发展中国家和发达国家,说明中国出口产品结构的改善主要得益于经济全球化这一外生因素,这一方面说明中国在利用经济全球化改善产业和贸易结构上的成功,但是另一方面随着经济全球化深化速度的减缓和信息通讯产业的成熟,中国贸易结构可能缺乏稳步改善的动力,因此发挥内生因素对推动中国出口技术结构改善的作用将是今后的政策重点。It is an important direction of China＇s foreign trade development to upgrade the export technology structure. Based on the international comparative perspective, the paper analyzes the changes and features of China export technology structure, and studies empirically the factors that influence the evolution of technology structure. The trend shows, compared with other countries, Chinese export technology structure improves rapidly in the sample period, but after 2005 it shows a stable trend. China export technology structure improvement is mainly due to the rise in export share of the electronic ＆ information industry exports and the automobile and engineering machinery industries have little contribution. The international panel data analysis shows that, compared with other countries, China befits more from the economic globalization to promote the ex- port technology structure than other developing countries and developed countries. It shows China export technology structure improvement is mainly due to the economic globalization, an exogenous factor. This shows that the China succeeds in using e- conomic globalization to improve industrial and trade structure, but on the other hand, with the slowdown of economic global- ization deepening and the mature of ICT industry, China may lack the impetus for steady improvement of trade structure, therefore it should be a policy focus to let endogenous factors play roles in promoting future export technology structure.

关 键 词：出口产品 技术结构 影响因素 国际比较 面板数据 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]