环境约束下中国工业增长与节能减排双赢绩效研究——一个非径向DEA模型分析框架  

Win-win Performance of China's Industrial Growth and Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction under Environmental Restriction:A Non-radial DEA Analytical Framework

作　　者：梁俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2014年第2期93-102,共10页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"绿色经济增长核算模型的构建及应用研究"(项目编号:71103214);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国经济的结构性减速与结构性改革"(项目编号:13JJD790036);教育部省部共建人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"长江上游地区工业的动态环境绩效优化研究:生态效率视角"(项目编号:10JJD790028);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目"中国经济的结构性减速与结构性调整"成果(项目编号:14XNH045)

摘　　要：本文利用一个非径向的DEA模型框架，对中国工业增长与环境双赢发展现状进行了分析，并通过选择最优的节能减排路径对中国工业2012—2050年双赢发展趋势进行了预测。分析结果表明，2000—2011年间，中国工业行业整体以及重工业实现了双赢发展，但其双赢状况在不断恶化；轻工业未实现双赢，经济与环境的矛盾还有不断扩大的趋势。在本文设计的未来39年最优节能减排路径下，中国工业不能实现双赢发展，大部分行业不仅无法实现双赢，其经济发展与环境规制的矛盾还将进一步深化。为了促进双赢发展的出现，重工业应加速产业升级，提高环保技术研发力度；轻工业的环境规制力度要进一步增强；此外，环境规制应以渐近型和激励型为主。Using a non-radial DEA analytical framework, this paper analyzes the current win-win situation of China＇s industrial growth and environment ,and predicts the win-win trend of China＇s industries between 2012 and 2050 through the chosen optimal path of energy conservation and emission reduction. The results show China＇s industries and heavy industries had realized win-win development from 2000 to 2011, though the win-win situation is worsening. One the other hand, China＇s light industries hadn＇t achieved win-win situation, moreover, the discrepancy between economy and environment is enlarging. Under the chosen energy conservation and emission reduction path for the next 39 years, China＇s industries won＇t achieve win-win development. Most industries will not only unable to achieve win-win development, their conflicts between economic development and environment regulation will further deepen. To promote the win-win prospect, it＇s required to promote industrial upgrading of heavy industry, improve research and development ; the environmental regulation of light industry should be further strength- ened. Besides, the environmental regulation should be gradual and incentive.

关 键 词：数据包络分析 非径向方向性距离函数 双赢发展 环境规制 中国工业 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]