基于模糊预测的装备任务成功性评估  

Evaluating of Units Dependability Based on Fuzzy Predictive

作　　者：聂挥宇[1] 张薇[1] 周全志[1] 韩小孩[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉军械士官学校,武汉430075 [2]装甲兵工程学院,北京100072

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2014年第4期136-140,共5页Ship Electronic Engineering

摘　　要：建立了基于因果聚类的模糊预测模型和装备任务成功性评估模型。结合装备以往使用、检测数据以及现有装备状态信息,利用模糊预测理论对相关功能单元未来任务可靠性进行了预测。将装备分为可修部分和不可修部分,分别进行了任务成功性评估,从而实现了装备任务成功性评估。最后举例说明了该方法在装甲装备任务成功性评估过程中的应用。The model of causation cluster and the model of evaluating of equipment＇s mission reliability are established. Combined the statistics of usage and detection in the past with the condition of equipment, the mission reliability of units by the way of fuzzy predictive is predicted. Then the equipments are divided to be the parts which could be repaired and the parts which couldn＇t. The dependability of the two parts is evaluated. In the last, an example is taken to show.

关 键 词：任务成功性 模糊预测 特征集 

分 类 号：E92[军事—军事装备学]