施工导流堰前水位分布的概率密度演化方法  

Probability Density Evolution Method for the Study of Probability Distribution of Cofferdam's Upstream Level During Construction Diversion

作　　者：叶恩立 周宜红[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2014年第2期209-215,共7页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2008BAB29B02-2-2)

摘　　要：针对施工导流期间上游围堰堰前水位的概率分布,应用了一类以概率守恒原理为理论基础的概率密度演化思想和方法.在分析水文和水力不确定性的基础上,根据水库蓄量平衡关系,建立了堰前水位分布的广义概率密度演化方程.以某水电工程为例,通过数值求解带有7个随机变量的广义概率密度演化方程,得到了堰前水位分布的概率密度函数曲线,并根据该曲线随时间的演化规律,分析了堰前水位的涨落趋势和涨落速度,发现在水文和水力随机因素的综合影响下,水位分布大体呈对称多峰型,形式上与正态分布相距甚远.According to the rule of reservoir＇s storage balance, a generalized density evolution equation of probability distribution of cofferdam＇s upstream level during construction diversion was built. The equation is based on the thought as well as the method of probability density evolution which taking the preservation principle of probability as the theoretical foundation. To reflect the effects of uncertainties, hydrology and hydraulic uncertainties were considered in the generalized density evolution equation. Taking certain water-power engineering as a case, the generalized density evolution equation which contains 7 random variables was numerically solved, and the probability density as well as its evolution pattern were also acquired. The trend and velocity of the level＇s fluctuation can be obtained according to the evolution pattern. It is also found that the probability distribution of level appears symmetric-multimodal which is far different from normal distribution.

关 键 词：概率密度演化方法 堰前水位 概率分布 概率演化 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] O211.63[理学—概率论与数理统计]