基于信息扩散的强震地表破裂宽度预测  

Estimation Method for Surface Rupture Width Under Strong Earthquake Based on Information Diffusion

作　　者：李波[1,2] 马东辉[1,3] 苏经宇[1,3] 王威[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124 [2]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124 [3]北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院,北京100124

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2014年第2期294-304,共11页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51208017);国家十二五科技支撑计划(2011BAK07B01;2011BAJ08B05);PICC灾害研究基金(2012D32)

摘　　要：强震引发的工程场地地表破裂对其上的建(构)筑物会造成严重破坏.准确预测地震发生后地表破裂带宽度,确定出合理的断层避让距离对工程建设场地的选择具有重要意义.本文提出一种利用信息扩散原理对强震地表破裂宽度进行预测的方法.首先在诸多影响因素分析的基础上选取震级、上覆土层厚度为主要评价指标,采用模糊信息优化处理中的信息扩散原理及一、二级模糊近似推论,建立了两个评价指标与地表破裂宽度之间的模糊关系;然后针对模型的稳定性和精度进行交叉验证,并与多元线性回归模型、完全二次回归模型和BP神经网络模型进行对比,计算结果显示,信息扩散方法构建的强震地表破裂宽度模型可以较好的处理各指标间的非线性关系;最后,以实例分析验证了该方法的有效性和可行性.The surface rupture triggered by strong earthquakes will extensively damage buildings on the ground. It is significant for choosing construction sites to forecast accurately and calculate reasonable building lien distance. The paper proposed a method which aimed to forecast the surface rupture width under strong earthquake based on information diffusion methodology. Firstly, magnitude and the thickness of overburden soil were taken as main evaluation indexes, and then fuzzy relation between two evaluation indexes and surface rupture zone width was established based on the information diffusion principle and fuzzy approximate deduction. Secondly,cross validation was used to evaluate the model~ stability and accuracy,then followed by a comparation with the multiple linear regression model, quadratic regression model and BP neural network model. The results show that information diffusion methodology can deal with nonlinear relationship of every index. Finally, the validity and feasibility were proved by instance analysis.

关 键 词：信息扩散 断层错动 地表破裂 覆盖土层 

分 类 号：P731.21[天文地球—海洋科学]