能源技术变动对中国经济和能源环境的影响——基于一个动态可计算一般均衡模型的分析  

The Influence of Change in Energy Technology on China's Economy,Energy and Environment——An Simulation Research Based on Dynamic CGE Method

作　　者：刘亦文[1,2] 胡宗义[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082 [2]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《中国软科学》2014年第4期43-57,共15页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AJL007);湖南省自然科学基金项目(11JJ5049;12JJ5038);湖南省博士后科研资助专项计划(2014RS4015);第55批中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目

摘　　要：本文基于通过投资报酬率的高低影响投资者的投资意愿,进而影响产业的资本存量的累计建模理念,借助动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型仿真分析了三种场景下能源技术变动对我国宏观经济变量、产业资本收益率、产业发展及节能减排的影响程度,得到一段时间内各经济变量变化的大致路径。研究结果表明:能源技术变动在短期和长期中对主要宏观经济变量、要素市场及节能减排都有较为明显的推动作用。短期内能源技术的正向变动有利于提高各产业资本收益率,拉动投资者的投资意愿。能源使用技术变动对非农业相关部门的产出水平均产生了正向的偏离,而对农业相关部门并没有完全产生积极的影响,从长期来看,能源使用技术变动有利于促进产业结构的调整。This paper modeling concept based on the level of return on investment affect investors＇ willingness, thereby affecting the cumulative of industrial capital stock, using dynamic CGE model of China＇s economic-MCHUGE model, this article simulates analysis the impacts of the four scenarios energy technology changes on China＇s macroeconomic, re- turn on capital of industry,industrial development , energy saving and emission reduction, to obtain the approximate path in the economic variables changes at a period of time. The results showed that： energy technological Change has a more significant role in promoting on the main macroeconomic variables, factor markets, energy saving and emission reduction in the short and the long run. In the short term, energy technologies will help improve the return on investment and stimu- late investment will. Energy technological Change have a positive impact on the output levels of the non-agricultural sec-tor, the agricultural sector is not so. In the long term, energy technological progress is conducive to promote industrial structure adjustment.

关 键 词：能源技术变动 CGE模型 MCHUGE模型 节能减排 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]