劳动人口、老龄化对经济增长的影响——基于中国9个省市的实证研究  

The Impact of Working-age Population and Aging upon Economic Growth:Empirical Research Based on China's Provincial Data

作　　者：郑君君[1] 朱德胜[1] 关之烨[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国软科学》2014年第4期149-159,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71371147)

摘　　要：首先从理论上分析了劳动年龄人口份额和劳动力老龄化对经济增长的影响。通过构建计量模型,收集和使用我国9个省市1995-2010年的面板数据对劳动年龄人口份额与劳动力老龄化对经济增长的影响进行实证检验,证实了劳动年龄人口份额对我国经济增长具有正向促进作用,而劳动力老龄化将会对我国经济增长造成不利影响。This paper firstly theoretically analyzes the impact of the share of working-age population and labor force aging on economic growth. Econometric model on the basis of theoretical analysis is constructed, and China＇s 9 provincial data from 1995 - 2010 is used to empirically test for the effect of the share of China＇s working-age population and labor force aging on economic growth. Model results which corresponds to the results of theoretical analysis show that the share of working-age population in China has a positive role in promoting economic growth, and labor force ageing will be harmful to China＇s economic growth.

关 键 词：劳动年龄人口 劳动力 老龄化 经济增长 

分 类 号：F63[经济管理—产业经济]