中国贸易弹性的估算——基于2005年汇改以来的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on The Estimation of China's Trade Elasticities since the Reform of Exchange Rate Regime in 2005

作　　者：姜子叶[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行南京分行

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2014年第5期53-59,88,共7页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：本文通过对标准贸易模型的OLS估计，从总体和行业层面上系统地估算2005～2011年中国的长期贸易弹性。结果显示，中国贸易收支的调节主要来自于国内外收入，相对价格对贸易收支的调节能力日益明显；Houthakker-Magee假说在中国成立，存在“弹性悲观论”和行业层面的总量偏见；人民币升值并未有效改善贸易条件，汇率支出转换效应更多地体现于进出口相对价格对贸易量的影响。Using the OLS estimation method based on the standard trade model,this paper studies China's long-term trade elasticities from 2005 to 2011 in the overall and sector aspects respectively.The paper concludes that the adjustment of China's trade balance mainly results from the income elasticities,while the price elasticities play a role.The Houthakker-Magee Hypothesis,the Elasticity Pessimism and the Aggregation Bias related to China have all been proved in our paper.The appreciation of RMB hasn't improved the terms of trade yet.The switching effect of exchange rate is embodied by the relative price effect on the volume.

关 键 词：贸易弹性 人民币汇率 标准贸易模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F832.6[经济管理—产业经济]