中国核心通货膨胀率估算  

Estimate of Chinese Core Inflation Rate

作　　者：赵春艳[1] 文新雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2014年第3期11-18,124,共8页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文在对通货膨胀成因的理论进行梳理的基础上,将引起通货膨胀的因素分为实际经济冲击、货币冲击、需求冲击和汇率冲击,并对核心通货膨胀的内涵进行了明确的界定。在理论分析的基础上,建立了包含4个内生变量的SVAR模型,分离出四种冲击对通货膨胀作用的结果,并根据定义估算出了我国1995-2012年季度核心通货膨胀率的序列。结果显示,各种冲击对通货膨胀的影响效果符合经济理论的假设,且所得到的核心通货膨胀率序列符合预期的特征,具有长期稳定性,并能够服务于货币政策的制定。In this paper,after the theories on inflation causes are carded,the factors that cause inflation are classified as real economic shock,monetary shock,demand shock and exchange rate shock and a clear definition of core inflation is given. Based on economic analysis,a 4-endogenous variable SVAR model is built,the results of the roles of four shocks in inflation are separated and the sequence of the quarterly core inflation rate in China from 1995 to 2012 is estimated. The result shows that the effectiveness of influence of all kinds of shocks on inflation is in line with the hypothesis of economic theories and the core inflation rate sequence we get conforms to the expected characters. And it is stable in the long run and can be used for making monetary policy.

关 键 词：核心通货膨胀 通货膨胀成因 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F822.5