财政赤字、通货膨胀与非李嘉图制度  

Fiscal Deficit,Inflation and Non-Ricardo System

作　　者：崔惠民[1] 王书越 马涛 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院,安徽蚌埠233962 [2]国家发改委气候司,北京100824

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2014年第3期19-25,124,共7页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：教育部社科规划基金2010项目:垄断规制与竞争平衡-基于目标与手段交叉的分析(10YJA790031)的资助成果

摘　　要：改革开放以来我国财政收支一直处于赤字状态,理论上来讲,长期的财政赤字如果不能以税收收入作为担保,政府必然最终会通过通货膨胀的方式来弥补,而且如果财政当局处于主导地位,在政府的举债能力不受到任何限制情况下,极有可能会引起恶性通货膨胀。本文基于扩展VAR模型的实证检验显示,在当前的政府融资体制安排下,我国的通货膨胀很大程度上是一种财政现象,财政政策在价格水平决定中发挥主导作用,货币政策处于从属地位。如果想要从根本上治愈周期性的通货膨胀,就必须进行相应的财政政策调整、财政体制改革和货币体制改革,健全政府融资体制。Chinese fiscal income and expenses have been in deficit since the reform and opening up. In theory,if not guaranteed by tax revenue, long-term fiscal deficit will surely be remedied finally by government's inflation policy. If the fiscal authority is in the leading position and the government's capacity to borrow money is not limited by any means,it is possible that hyperinflation will come. This paper is based on the empirical test of VAR model. Arranged under the current governmental financing system,Chinese inflation is a kind of fiscal phenomenon to great extent. If cyclical inflation wants to be cured radically,there must be corresponding fiscal policy adjustment,fiscal system reform,monetary system reform and sound governmental financing system.

关 键 词：财政赤字 通货膨胀 铸币税 货币政策 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学] F822.5