序贯蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异分析  

Analysis on Differences of Applying Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Power Gird Reliability Assessment

作　　者：暴英凯 王越[1] 唐俊熙 郭创新[1] 王惺[2] 施会 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]国网上海市电力公司奉贤供分公司,上海市奉贤区201400

出　　处：《电网技术》2014年第5期1189-1195,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)(2013CB228206);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177143);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LZ12E07002)~~

摘　　要：分析比较了元件状态持续时间采样(state duration sampling,SDS)和等时间间隔采样(time interval sampling,TIS)2种常用序贯蒙特卡洛仿真方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异。针对SDS方法执行效率低但精度高,而TIS方法计算速度快但精度不足的特点,提出通过选择合适的采样间隔,并采用修正系数对与采样次数直接有关的电力不足持续时间(LOLD)指标进行修正,来改善TIS方法的仿真精度和计算速度。IEEE-RTS79测试系统的仿真结果验证了所提方法的有效性,并且表明修正后的TIS方法在系统故障率增加时效率优势更加明显。The differences of two kinds of commonly used sequential Monte Carlo simulation methods, namely the state duration sampling （SDS） and time interval sampling （TIS）, applied in power grid reliability assessment are analyzed and compared. In allusion to the features of low efficiency and high accuracy of SDS method and insufficient accuracy and high computation speed of TIS method, it is proposed by means of choosing suitable sampling intervals and using correction coefficient to correct the loss of load duration （LOLD） indicator directly related to sampling times to improve the simulation accuracy and computing speed of TIS method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by simulation results of IEEE-RTS79, and it is indicated that the modified TIS method possesses evident superiority in efficiency while the power grid failure rate increases.

关 键 词：电力系统可靠性评估 序贯蒙特卡洛法 状态持续时间采样 等时间间隔采样 修正系数 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]