中国人口生育意愿变迁:1980—2011  

A Change in the Desired Fertility of the Chinese Population:1980-2011

作　　者：侯佳伟[1] 黄四林[1] 辛自强[1] 孙铃[1] 张红川[1] 窦东徽[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学社会发展学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2014年第4期78-97,206,共20页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：中央财经大学社会调研与数据库建设项目;中央财经大学第三期211项目的支持

摘　　要：基于1980—2011年间开展的227项关于中国人生育意愿的调查结果,运用横断历史元分析方法,考察了生育意愿的纵向变化趋势。研究发现,1980年以来中国人理想子女数呈减少趋势。2000年之后主要表现为"儿女双全"的二孩生育意愿,平均理想子女数基本稳定在1.6—1.8人之间。1980年代中国人生育水平高于生育意愿,随着经济和教育发展水平的提升,二者均呈下降趋势,但是生育水平下降快于生育意愿。1990年之后生育水平低于生育意愿,即人们实际生育子女数少于理想子女数。这为认识生育意愿和生育水平在中国的变化趋势提供了实证依据。On the basis of a 227-item survey of desired fertility among the Chinese carried out from 1980 to 2011,we conducted a cross-temporal meta-analysis to examine longitudinal changes in desired fertility.Our findings show that since 1980,the ideal number of children in a Chinese family has been declining.After 2000,desired fertility was mainly expressed as having two children,'a boy and a girl.'On average,the ideal number of children is basically stable at 1.6-1.8.In the 1980 s,the Chinese fertility level was higher than the desired fertility level.With the improvement of economic and educational development,both the fertility level and desired fertility trended downwards,but the fall in the fertility level was faster than that of desired fertility.Since 1990,the fertility level has been lower than desired fertility,i.e.the number of children people actually had has been fewer than their ideal number of children.This provides empirical evidence for understanding trends in desired fertility and fertility levels in China.

关 键 词：生育意愿 理想子女数 性别偏好 生育水平 横断历史元分析 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]