Structural Deceleration,Financial Expansion and Policy Selection:China's Economic Prospects for 2014  

作　　者：张平 苏治 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS) [2]School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics

出　　处：《China Economist》2014年第3期4-18,共15页中国经济学人（英文版）

基　　金：the sponsorships by the Youth Program of National Natural Science Fund(Approval No.71101157);New Century Talent Support Program of the Ministry of Education,2013;Youth Fund Program for Cultural,Social and Scientific Research under the Ministry of Education(Approval No.10YJC790220);2~(nd)Youth Research and Innovation Team of the Central University of Finance and Economics;the Young Social Sciences Talents Support Program of Beijing Social Sciences Federation in 2012

摘　　要：China's economic performance in 2013 has verified that China's economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector.Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable.Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China's economic growth in 2013.But structural root cause of slowdown remains.According to cash flow statement,balance sheet and cross-border capital flow,risks of China's financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion.Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand.Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform,including political reform,reform of supply mechanism,balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition,and reform of financial system.China＇s economic performance in 2013 has verified that China＇s economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical. Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector. Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable. Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China＇s economic growth in 2013. But structural root cause of slowdown remains. According to cash flow statement, balance sheet and cross-border capital flow, risks of China ＇s financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion. Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand. Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform, including political reform, reform of supply mechanism, balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition, and reform of financial system.

关 键 词：economic transition structural deceleration financial expansion policy choice 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学] F124