从“遗传基因”发现日本经济“病因”——兼论安倍经济政策效果  

Diagnosing the Cause of Japan's Economy Disease on the Basis of “Gene”——Also the Effect of Abe's Economic Policy

作　　者：金柏松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2014年第2期98-111,128,共14页Northeast Asia Forum

摘　　要：全球对有关日本经济究竟病在何处一直迷惑不解,有泡沫经济论、流动性陷阱、借贷平衡表危机、金融系统性风险等,从不同角度分析给出结论。系统性诊断日本经济病,还需借助医学原理,从日本经济久病不愈分析,日本经济根源性问题应该发生在"基因"层面。为此,需要从战后日本经济周期演变规律切入,寻找贯穿始终的主要因素,诊断"基因的病理",才能真正发现问题所在。战后日本经历了一次长周期、三大阶段演变,其中政党执政理念、出口导向型增长模式、投资与消费对日本经济盛衰发挥了至关重要作用,而不动产、人口老龄化因素发挥了次重要作用。对照"三主两次"的"基因病状",安倍政府的经济政策不过是缓解症状而已,未来日本经济前景还将重回下降通道,甚至崩溃。There is worldwide confusion over where exactly the Japan's economic disease lies in.The bubble economy theory,liquidity trap,balance sheet crisis and financial systemic risk,give conclusions from different perspectives.Systemically diagnosing Japan's economy disease needs to analyze the cause of the prolonged disease with the help of medical theory.The root of Japan's economic problem should occur at'gene'level.Hence we need to start with the developing principles of Japan's postwar economic cycle,search for the main factors throughout the process,and diagnose the'gene pathology'in order to identify the problem.After the War,Japan experienced a super long cycle and three major phases of evolution,where the political party's governing philosophy,export-oriented growth model,investment and consumption have played a vital role in the boom and bust of the Japanese economy while real estate and an aging population have played a less important role.Comparing the'genetic condition'of the'three main & two minor',Abe government's economic policy is no more than reliving symptoms.The future prospects for the Japanese economy will return to a downward spiral even collapse.

关 键 词：日本经济病 遗传基因 执政理念 周期理论 出口导向型 国债危机 

分 类 号：F131.31[经济管理—世界经济]