旅游生命周期模型新解释——基于生产投资与需求分析  

A New Interpretation of the Model of Tourism Life Cycle: Based on Production Investment and Demand Analyses

作　　者：李军[1] 陈志钢[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学旅游学院,广东广州510275 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2014年第3期58-72,共15页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(1209039-40000-3161111);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41001075)资助~~

摘　　要：自巴特勒(1980)提出旅游地生命周期理论假说之后,旅游生命周期理论研究的文献分歧较大,多数学者只从需求变化的角度来阐释旅游地生命周期的演变。基于生产投资与需求视角,文章建立并解释了包含旅游产品生命周期和旅游地生命周期的完全模型。文章认为,旅游产品生命周期的各个发展阶段是由其生产投资与游客接待量的关系所决定的,包含基础设施建设和竞争性游乐项目两大阶段构成,并且提出了影响每一个小阶段演变的主要因素。同时,旅游地生命周期是由若干个旅游产品生命周期叠加而成的,并且分析了几种形式的旅游地生命周期。文章还阐述了该模型的重要含义。There have been significant divergences in the literature about Butler's model of the tourism area life cycle( TALC). The primary causes are: most of the literature has failed to recognize the great difference between tourism product life cycle( TPLC) and tourism area life cycle,and it has examined the evolutionary process of tourist areas only from the perspective of tourism demand as the main changing agent. Being aware of these causes,the authors came up with a complete model of the tourism life cycle( TLC) that included both TPLC and TALC,based on production investment and tourism demand analyses. It was believed that( the difference between tourism products and tourism areas was manifested in that tourism areas usually had greater geographical space than tourism products). Moreover,a tourism area generally included several tourism products; while tourism product was defined as a basic geo-space unit that includes only one ticket for one scenic spot,from the viewpoint of numbers of tourism products in a geographical space. After differentiating these two concepts,this paper derived,from the perspective of production investment,the two basic phases of TPLC,which consist of the classical S-shaped curve. The two basic phases of Butler's S-shaped curve were about infrastructure construction and competitive tourism projects. This curve resulted from the production relationship between production investments as inputs and tourist arrivals as outputs. And then the five well-known sub-phases of the two basic phases( i. e.,exploration,involvement,development,consolidation and stagnation),were deduced from the study of factors affecting tourism-capital-investment payoff according to variation of the ratio of fixed investment costs to variable costs. Naturally,this deduction process postulated that two factors were very important to the evolution of TPLC. They were the ratio of fixed costs to variable costs and price of tourism products. The former embodied the effect of production investments on TPLC; whereas,the latte

关 键 词：旅游产品生命周期 旅游地生命周期 旅游固定投资成本 旅游投资可变成本 旅游产品价格 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理] F223[经济管理—产业经济]