基于Holt-Winter模型的建设用地需求量预测  

Construction Land Demand Prediction Based on Holt-Winter Model

作　　者：孙慧[1] 盛筠[1] 陈扬杨[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2014年第2期283-287,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(11YJA630107)

摘　　要：为合理规划利用建设用地,结合某市经济、社会发展状况及建设用地现状,通过关键成功因素法(critical success factor,CSF)识别选取人口、国内生产总值、固定资产投资额,以及城市化率为主要影响指标,采用多元线性回归预测模型确定各个变量与建设用地之间的线性关系,运用岭回归对模型进行修正,并辅之Holt-Winter模型对城市建设用地影响因素进行预测,得出2011—2015年某市建设用地需求量总体呈现上升趋势的结论。To improve the forecast accuracy , this paper fully considers the concept and features of construction land .Then based on the construction land＆#39;s impact factors of economy and society , it chooses a city as the target city to calculate the con-struction land demand .According to the development of economy and society and the status of construction land of the city , it considers the influencing factors and chooses urban population , GDP, fixed asset investment and urbanization as the main influ-encing indicators by Critical Success Factor .Then the multiple linear regressions method is used to determine the linear relation-ship between the variables , and supplemented by Holt -Winter model to predict the influencing factor .After that, ridge regres-sion is aimed to correct the linear models .According to construction land condition of the city , the demand of construction land of the city from year 2011 to 2015 is concluded and the tendency is increasing .

关 键 词：建设用地需求量 多元线性回归 Holt-Winter模型 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]