2012—2013年冬季渤海海冰数值预报  

Numerical sea ice forecast for the Bohai Sea in the winter of 2012—2013

作　　者：赵倩[1] 刘煜[1] 唐茂宁[1] 隋俊鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2014年第2期73-79,共7页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41176022);海洋公益性科研专项(20110516)

摘　　要：介绍了2012—2013年冬季的渤海冰情,通过对海冰增长和消融过程以及各海区严重冰期冰情的综合分析,该年度冰情总体上较常年偏重。总结该年度渤海海冰数值预报情况,客观检验结果表明,数值预报保证率满足海冰业务化预报的精度指标。针对海上生产需求研发了小区域高精度海冰数值模式,对工程作业区域具有较好的预报能力,为保障冬季渤海生产安全发挥了积极作用。the sea ice conditions in the winter of 2012 2013 is reviewed. By comprehensive analysis of the sea ice growth, melt processes and the conditions at severe-ice-period in each area of the Bohai Sea, the result indicates that it is a severer-ice-year. The numerical sea ice forecasting results are summarized, and the validation results prove that the forecast validities have satisfied the desired precision in the operational forecasting system. Moreover, to meet the rising demands of the maritime activities, a high-resolution model is developed and play an important role on the exploration and production of oil and gas in the Bohai Sea.

关 键 词：海冰 数值预报 渤海 

分 类 号：P731.15[天文地球—海洋科学]