基于GDP发展控制煤炭产能及库存水平  

Controling coal capacity and inventory level with the GDP development

作　　者：刘海滨[1] 吴必善[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国矿业》2014年第5期38-43,共6页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助(编号:20100023110002);重庆国土资源可持续发展与创新研究会软科学研究项目资助(编号:YJH201302)

摘　　要：为稳定煤炭产能和煤炭调整供求关系,结合煤炭产能和GDP的线性关系的研究,提出煤炭合理产能调控区间以缓解当前各煤炭基地产能过剩所带来的库存压力及相关经济问题。利用需求预测技术,从微观层面上对各煤炭基地总经济产量做出预测,并通过建立数学模型计算出煤炭产量的置信区间,提出了煤炭产能调控的思路及相关方法。根据煤炭产能供需模型的分析和实际案例计算结果,得出煤炭经济总产量应该落在置信区间范围内作为合理产能的评价标准的结论。采用此标准可以降低当前煤炭产能过剩所带来的煤炭库存的压力,以使煤炭产能供需向均衡的方向发展,为实现我国煤炭能源可持续化发展提供理论指导。To stabilize the coal production and adjust supply and demand ,this paper combines the coal production and research of the linear relationship between the GDP and put forward reasonable coal capacity regulation range of research to alleviate the current inventory pressure and related economic problems .From micro level by using demand forecasting technology ,the paper gives total economic output prediction of each coal base ,and establishes a mathematical model to calculate the confidence interval of the coal production , and puts forward the idea of the coal production control and related methods .According to the analysis of the capacity of coal supply and demand model and the calculation results of actual case ,the paper concludes that coal total economic output should fall within the scope of the confidence interval as a reasonable capacity of the conclusion of evaluation standard .By using this standard , each coal base can reduce the current coal pressure coal inventory excess capacity ,so that the capacity of coal supply and demand can be controlled to the direction of balanced development . This paper can provide theoretical guidance for the coal energy sustainable development of our country .

关 键 词：煤炭供应链 随机库存 置信区间 

分 类 号：F407.21[经济管理—产业经济]