工业发展阶段性变化的国际经验及规律研究  

Research on International Experience and Regularity of Industrial Development Stages

作　　者：卞靖[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家发改委宏观经济研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2014年第5期1-5,共5页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院2013年重点课题<我国工业发展的阶段性变化研究>(A2013041008)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：纵观各工业化国家的发展历程,虽然由于本国国情和外部环境的不同导致其工业化道路千差万别,但在工业发展过程中存在着一定的共同特征。通过对具有先行优势的老牌工业国家和充分挖掘后发优势、成功实现工业化的赶超型国家工业发展的规律分析可知,一国工业发展到一定程度会出现明显的现阶段性变化。从工业总量的阶段性变化看,工业占比会经历由低到高再降低的倒"U"型转变;从工业结构的阶段性变化看,工业发展会经历由轻工业向重化工业再向高加工度工业的转变;从能源消耗的阶段性变化看,工业能耗会经历由低到高再逐渐降低的转变。通过对相关国际经验和规律的把握和深化认识,对于我国未来工业发展和经济结构转型具有重要的启示和借鉴作用。Throughout the development process of the industrialized countries, it can be found that there are common features in these counties, although their national conditions and external environments are different. The analysis on the different industrial development patterns of old industrialized countries with first-mover advantages and follow-up industrialized countries making full use of late-development advantage discovers that when one country＇s industrial development reached a certain extent, there appeared obvious changes. The total industrial output, the industrial structure and the energy consumption are presenting an inverted ＂ U＂ type. The knowledge of the relevant international experience and patterns should have an important enlightenment and reference for China.

关 键 词：工业发展 阶段性变化 国际经验 

分 类 号：F403[经济管理—产业经济]