高投资、低消费的财政基础  

Fiscal Foundation of High Investment and Low Consumption in China

作　　者：吕冰洋[1] 毛捷[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,财政金融政策研究中心,100872 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,100029

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第5期4-18,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"结构性减税的效果评估"(13JJD790033)资助;北京市哲学社会科学规划项目"财税改革与北京加快转变经济发展方式:基于‘营改增'视角的研究"(批准号:13JGC070);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(批准号:CXTD4-03)资助

摘　　要：高投资和低消费的并行是中国经济运行的典型现象,本文从理论和实证两个角度研究了形成高投资、低消费的财政基础。理论分析发现:通过为企业提供生产性服务,政府生产性公共支出的增加将推动投资消费比的上升;市场拥挤程度下降将促使投资消费比上升,而市场竞争加剧有助于降低投资消费比;针对消费征税会在抑制居民消费的同时增加政府生产性公共支出,因此也会推动投资消费比上升;理论上宏观税率或资本平均税率与投资消费比呈倒U型关系。实证检验结果支持理论分析结论,而且十分稳健。从降低投资消费比角度出发,应弱化中央政府扩张性财政政策和地方政府推动经济增长措施中对政府投资的依赖,财政支出结构应更多地向民生倾斜,税制结构应提高直接税比重,特别是积极推动财产税和个人所得税改革。Coexistence of high investment and low consumption is a stylized fact in China＇s economic development. This paper studies the fiscal foundation of the fact above theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical findings are as follows. （ 1 ） Public spending in production has positive impact on the ratio of investment to consumption, while market congestion and market competition have the opposite effect. （2）Taxation on consumption will depress consumption as well as stimulate public spending in production, resulting in the increase in the ratio of investment to consumption. （3） There is a hump-shape or inverted-U relationship between overall tax rate or capital average tax rate and the ratio of investment to consumption. Our estimation results, which are quite robust, support the theoretical findings aforementioned. According to our findings, we suggest some policies like weakening the dependence of economic growth on public investment, increasing public spending in livelihood, and reinforcing direct tax in tax system by promoting reforms in property tax and private income tax.

关 键 词：投资 居民消费 财政支出结构 税制结构 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F126F812.2