电信基础设施与中国经济增长  

Telecommunications Infrastructure and Chinese Economic Growth

作　　者：郑世林[1] 周黎安[2] 何维达[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,100732 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,100871 [3]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第5期77-90,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目"科技战略与科技政策研究和评价"(阶段性)成果;教育部人文社科项目(13YJC790219);中国博士后基金项目(2013M530001);全国统计科学研究计划重大项目(2013571);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273014);"数量经济与数量金融教育部重点实验室(北京大学)"的支持

摘　　要：国际金融危机后,发达国家纷纷提出电信基础设施刺激计划,试图借力新一轮信息技术革命重塑国家竞争优势。然而,电信基础设施与经济增长的因果关系在学术界一直存有争议。本文利用1990—2010年省级面板数据实证考察了电信基础设施对经济增长的影响。为了克服电信基础设施可能存在的内生性问题,本文利用中国电信改革所引起的各省电信市场结构的外生变化作为工具变量。实证分析的结果表明,在电信行业发展初期(1990—1999年),移动电话和固定电话基础设施的发展共同促进了经济增长;进入2000年以后,虽然移动电话基础设施对经济增长仍然具有显著的正向影响,但是对经济增长的贡献在逐渐递减,而固定电话基础设施对经济增长已经呈现出负向影响,说明由于用户萎缩固定电话基础设施已经出现闲置征兆。本文研究结果对于重新思考我国电信基础设施的发展战略具有重要的政策含义。In response to the financial crisis, many developed countries provided the telecommunications infrastructure stimulus plan to seize the opportunity of the next information revolution and improve the national competitiveness since 2008. Using the exogenous variables of telecommunications reform to oyercome the endogeneity between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth, we separately examined fixed and mobile telephony infrastructure on economic growth effect during the different industrial development period. We find that mobile phone and fixed phone infrastructure complementarily promote economic growth in the early build out period （1990--1999）. Telecommunications industry has quickly entered into the more mature period since 2000. We find that mobile services contribute much more to growth but that the effect diminishes over time as the markets for these services become more mature. The fixed telephone infrastructure is significantly negatively correlated with economic growth, which shows that this infrastructure has been idle with the decrease of the fixed telephone subscribers. Our results have important policy implications for rethinking the investment strategy of telecommunications infrastructure.

关 键 词：基础设施 经济增长 电信产业 经济体制改革 

分 类 号：F626[经济管理—产业经济] F124