基于二元经济结构的中国通货膨胀驱动因素与动态行为研究  

Inflation dynamics and its driving factors in China:From the open dual economy perspective

作　　者：鄢莉莉[1] 王一鸣[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学经济学院金融系,北京100871

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第5期1100-1109,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70973002);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(2009);中国博士后科学基金(2012M520088)

摘　　要：中国是个开放经济国家,同时又具有典型的二元经济结构,这两个经济特征可能从以下三方面影响中国的通货膨胀:首先,进口中间品的价格可能影响厂商的生产成本;其次,农产品价格尚未放开(多为政府指导定价特征)可能使得食品定价方式与非食品定价方式不同;再次,农村剩余劳动力转移将影响城镇劳动力市场的均衡,进而影响厂商的生产成本.与以往有关中国通货膨胀的研究文献不同,本文从微观主体的动态最优决策出发,构建了囊括上述三方面影响的中国新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线理论模型,并引入了货币政策冲击的影响.实证结果表明,非食品部门中前瞻型企业占主导,约占2/3,非食品价格调整时期约为三个季度;包含二元经济和开放经济因素的实际边际成本以及农村剩余劳动力转移对通货膨胀有显著影响,但用利率度量的货币政策直接供给效应在统计上不显著.As an open economy, China also has a typical dual economy. These two economic characteristics may affect China＇s inflation in the following three aspects： First, the prices of imported intermediate goods might influence firms＇ costs. Second, the modes of pricing for food and non-food might be of a great difference as a result of the conduct of most agricultural product prices by government （that is, the market of agricultural products has not been released）. Third, the transfer of rural labor force may change the urban labor market balance, and then affect firms＇ costs. In contrast to previous work, this paper models China＇s inflation using new Keynesian Phillips curve considering the above three factors and monetary policy shocks. Empirical results show that forward-looking behavior is predominant （accounting for about 2/3 of firms） in non-food sector, and that non-food prices are fixed for about three quarters on average. Real marginal costs including dual economy and open economy elements have a significant impact on inflation dynamics. The transfer of rural labor force also has a significant effect on inflation, but the directly supply-side effect of monetary policy （measured by interest rate） on inflation is insignificant.

关 键 词：新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线 二元开放经济 农村劳动力转移 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]