首位城市该多大?——国家规模、全球化和城市化的影响  

How Big Should A Primary City Be?——The Effects of National Population, Globalization and Urbanization

作　　者：陈钊[1] 陆铭[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学中国经济中心,教授上海200433 [2]上海交通大学 [3]复旦大学,教授上海200052

出　　处：《学术月刊》2014年第5期5-16,共12页Academic Monthly

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"制度变迁视角下的中国二元经济转型研究"(11AZD084);国家自然科学基金重点项目"兼顾效率与公平的中国城镇化:动力机制;发展路径与政策调整"(71133004);2013年度国家社科基金重大项目"推动我国经济持续健康发展的基本要求;根本途径和政策选择研究"(13&ZD015)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：通过跨国数据研究,一国的首位城市的决定因素对于理解一国人口的空间分布是个核心问题。一个国家总人口规模是决定其首位城市有多大的最为重要的因素,在全球142个国家(经济体)的样本中,仅仅通过国家人口规模(对数值)这个变量,便可以解释该国首位城市人口规模(对数值)的84.64%。此外,全球化和城市化的进程更会加强人口向首位城市的集聚。上海将在未来成为全球最大的城市。上海的面积是东京都的三倍,考虑到这一点,与东京都历史上的同阶段相比,上海在过去三十年中的人口增长速度是与经济增长速度相适应的。中国大城市的发展规划和公共政策应以未来人口增长的科学预测为基础,通过技术和管理手段来提高城市生活质量。相反,通过行政手段人为限制人口向特大城市集聚,将可能强化城市的"新二元结构",危害城市的和谐发展。This paper studies how a primary city＇s population is determined using a cross-country data set, which is a key issue to understand the spatial distribution of a country＇s population. We find that a country＇s total population is the most important determinant of its primary city＇s population. Using the sample of 142 countries, one single variable, a country＇s total population, can explain 84.86% of the variation of the primary city＇s population. Furthermore, globalization and urbanization can both promote the agglomeration of population in the primary city. Based on the findings, Shanghai will become the largest city in the world. Similar to the same stage in Tokyo＇s history, but 3 times larger than Tokyo in term of its area, Shanghai has had a fast population growth which is a result of economic development in the past two decades. The urban planning and public policy of China＇s mega-cities should be based on scientific forecast of future population growth. Technology and management should be both used to improve urban life quality. In contrast, if simply control population growth in mega-cities, it could strengthen the ＂New Urban Dualism＂, and damage the harmonious development.

关 键 词：首位城市 人口规模 全球化 城市化 

分 类 号：C91[经济管理]