GRAPES-EPS系统的初值生成方法与对比试验研究  

Two methods of initial perturbation generation and both comparison in the GRAPES-EPS system

作　　者：王太微[1] 陈德辉[2] 吴曼丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳中心气象台,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2014年第2期23-30,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：公益性行业专项项目"东北地区设施农业生产专业天气预报技术研究"(GYHY201206024);中国气象局科研项目"2012业务建设项目台风;海洋气象精细化预报业务系统建设(二期)"共同资助

摘　　要：介绍了增长模繁殖法(BGM)和集合转化卡尔曼滤波法(ETKF)两种不同的模式初始扰动方法的基本原理,并以GRAPES中尺度模式为基础,利用两种初始扰动方法构建了两套中尺度集合预报系统。通过"圣帕"台风的个例试验,对比两种初始扰动生成方法对降水预报结果的影响。结果表明:两种方法均可较好的捕捉中尺度强降水的过程信息,集合平均结果优于控制预报,并在一定程度上改善了强降水的落区和强度的预报;从邮票图和对集合预报系统的检验参数上来看,ETKF的集合离散度和特征值分布优于BGM方法,但对于降水结果 TS评分等的比较上来看,BGM的预报结果优于ETKF;另外,BGM方法和原理更简单,易于实现业务应用。The basic principles of two methods of a Breeding of growing mode （BGM） and an ensemble transform Kalman filter （ETKF） for the generation of initial perturbation value were introduced and compared with each oth- er. Based on the GRAPES-Meso model, two mecoscale ensemble forecast systems were established, i. e. a GRAPES-BGM and a GRAPES-ETKF. Using the Sepat typhoon event as a case study, the prediction accuracy of two methods for precipitation was compared. The results indicate that two systems can catch the information of pre- cipitation. The accuracy of ensemble forecast is higher than that of control forecast, especially for falling area and intensity of the heavy rain to some extent. The talagrand distribution of the ETKF scheme is better than that of the BGM scheme in terms of the poststamps and other verification, while the reverse is true in terms of the TS score of precipitation. Furthermore, the BGM scheme is easy and convenient for weather forecast service.

关 键 词：集合预报 BGM方法 ETKF方法 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]