甘肃省粮食生产的多尺度及关联分析  

Multi-scale analysis and grey analysis of grain production in Gansu Province

作　　者：卢李朋[1] 张杰[1] 张胜武[1] 江进德[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]阜阳师范学院社会发展学院,阜阳236500

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2014年第2期397-405,共9页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41061017)

摘　　要：采用甘肃省1949-2011年时间尺度的粮食产量历史数据,在对粮食产量时空尺度分析的基础上,基于33 a时间序列的粮食产量及其相关的11个变量的基础数据作为样本,建立粮食生产灰色系统模型对驱动机制进行分析,期望为农业部门粮食生产决策提供科学借鉴。分析结果表明:(1)1949-2011年,甘肃省粮食生产在波动中增长;粮食总产量、人均粮食产量及单产的曲线的动态变化基本吻合;甘肃省粮食产量变化主要存在23 a、15 a左右的年代际振荡周期和准9 a的年际波动周期,其中23 a、15 a左右的振荡周期较强烈;(2)单产、农村从业人口和有效灌溉面积是甘肃省粮食生产的主要驱动力。Gansu Province （92° 13＇ - 108°46＇ E, 32° 31＇ - 42° 57＇ N） which located in the northwest of China is one of the great bases of commercial foodstuff. The paper explores the impacts that affect the regional grain production, by choosing socio-economic statistics from 1949 to 2011, based on the time analysis and space analysis to the grain dynamic changes in 63 years. After that, Gray System model was established depending on the data of 11 variables about grain production of Gansu Province in the past 63 years since Reform and Opening Up of China. The research show as follows： （1） from 1949 to 2011, the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grain production in Gansu Province mainly performed in third aspects. First and foremost, it displayed a significantly fluctuated growth in grain production but the fluctuations in grain production in recent years has slowed down; Besides, the curve line of total grain production, the changing trends of per capita food production and grain yield per unit area are basically alike. Last but not means the least, there are such as 23 a, 15 a and 9 a typical oscillation in grain production variation in Gansu Province on a time scale of 63 years since the founding of our motherland, particularly, the 23 a and 15 a oscillation dominated. Concretely speaking, the province＇s total grain output increased from 206 million tons in 1949 to 1 014.6 million tons in 2011. In addition, the average annual growth rate of 2.6% per capita food increased from 212.71 kg in 1949 to 2 777.52kg in 2011 and the average annual growth rate of 1.01%,what is more,the average an- nual growth rate of 2.47% grain yields from 612.43 in 1949 to 2 777.52 kilogram per hectare in 2011. （2） Per capita food production and space distribution of the average annual growth rate differences are significant in 14 areas of Gansu Province. （3） The three main drivers of food production are per area corps production, farmer resource and effective irrigation area. In detailed, the correla

关 键 词：粮食 甘肃省 小波分析 灰度关联分析 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]