基于模糊事故树的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故危险源分析  

Analysis on Danger Sources of Mine Gas Explosion Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

作　　者：李新春[1] 刘全龙[1] 裴丽莎[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《煤炭工程》2014年第5期93-96,共4页Coal Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"多因素耦合作用下煤矿事故复杂性机理及其风险度量研究"(71271206)

摘　　要：文章根据煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故发生机理,建立了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故树,并分析得出瓦斯爆炸事故链,进而采用模糊事故树对事故链上各种危险源的不确定性和在事故产生过程中的重要度不一性进行分析,在分析模糊重要度计算方法上,采用中值法来获取基本事件的重要程度。最后,通过实例分析检验了模糊事故树分析对于煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故风险预控的可行性和科学性,从而为煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故及时准确预警提供了新思路。According to the mechanism of the mine gas explosion accident occurred, a fault tree of the mine gas explosion was established, the gas explosion accident chain was analyzed and a fuzzy fault tree was applied to the analysis on the uncertainty of each danger source in the accident chain and the inconsistency of the importance during the accident occurred process. In the analysis on the calculation method of the fuzzy importance, a median method was applied to obtain the importance of the base accident. Finally the case analysis was applied to verify the feasibility and science of the fuzzy fault tree to the risk control of the mine gas explosion accident and to provide a new idea to the on - time accurate early warning of the mine gas explosion.

关 键 词：煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故 模糊事故树 危险源 模糊概率 模糊重要度 

分 类 号：TD712.7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]