基于AHP的大庆海外石油钻探项目风险评价指标体系研究  

Study on risk evaluation indicator system of Daqing overseas oil drilling projects based on AHP

作　　者：张洪大[1,2] 帅传敏[1] 郭晴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学〈武汉〉经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]大庆钻探工程公司,黑龙江大庆163000

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2014年第4期152-157,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：大庆油田项目化管理模式与发展策略研究(2012086008);中国地质大学(武汉)研究生培养模式与教学改革项目(CUGYCXK1004)

摘　　要：我国石油企业在承揽海外石油钻探项目的过程中,为确保工程能顺利进行,需要进行风险预警管理。基于150份完整有效的调查问卷数据,以大庆海外石油钻探项目风险管理为研究对象,采用文献查阅法、问卷调查法、德尔菲法专家法、AHP层次分析法等研究方法,对大庆海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理进行了研究,构建了海外石油钻探项目的风险评价指标体系。研究表明:政治经济风险对海外石油钻探项目影响最大,社会文化风险影响最小;政治经济风险中,经济风险的影响远大于政治风险的影响;财务风险中,与获利相关的直接风险大于间接风险;地质条件工程与技术风险中,地质条件风险大于技术风险;社会文化风险中,与东道国语言差异造成的风险影响最大。最后,提出了相应地对策建议。In the process of contracting overseas oil drilling （ OOD） projects, the importance of risk forewarning management is getting increasingly important day by day .It is necessary to perform risk forewarning management to ensure a smooth implementation of these projects .This paper based on 150 complete and effective questionnaire data, taking Daqing overseas oil drilling project risks as the research object , conducts a theoretical and empirical study on the overseas oil drilling project risk forewarning management by adopting literature review , questionnaire survey, Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method etc .This paper established the risk evaluation indexing system .The results indicate： The overseas oil drilling projects are most influenced by political and economic risks , and social cultural risks the least;economic risks have more influence than political risks;in terms of financial risks , direct risks related to profits are higher than indirect risks;geological conditions risks are higher than technical risks and;in social cultural risks , language difference causes the most risks.Finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the above conclusions .

关 键 词：大庆油田 海外石油钻探 项目风险预警管理 层次分析法(AHP) 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]