基于因子分析与模糊综合评判方法的水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Factor Analysis and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：邢军[1] 孙立波[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连大学环境与化学工程学院,大连116622 [2]杭州万向职业技术学院,杭州310023

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2014年第4期52-55,59,共5页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：浙江省科技厅面上农业项目(2009C22G1120001)

摘　　要：随着水环境问题的日益突出,水资源承载力成为可持续发展研究和水资源安全战略研究中的一个基础课题。以合肥市水资源承载力为研究对象,从水资源、水环境状况和社会经济活动等几个方面,构建合肥市水资源承载力评价指标体系。通过因子分析方法,确定了各评价指标的权重,并与模糊综合评判法进行有机结合,对合肥市2005-2011年的水资源承载力进行了综合评价。结果表明:人口情况、水资源开发利用程度是影响合肥市水资源承载力的主要因素。2005-2011年,合肥市的水资源承载力整体上呈现出平缓地递增趋势;水资源承载力的综合评分值较小,在0.4左右,属于弱承载。其变化主要和水资源开发利用程度较低,人口急剧增加,经济迅速发展有关。因此,建议从社会、经济的进一步发展和保护生态环境出发,合理利用本地水资源并进行水利工程建设,提高水资源的利用效率,以期对水资源的规划管理及相关研究提供理论依据。With the problem of water environment getting more serious, the carrying capacity of water resources has been regarded as a foundational topic in water resources security strategic study and the sustainable development research. Taking water resources ear rying capacity of Hefei City as research object, from the water resources situation, water environment and social economic activities, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity was established. The factor analysis was used to determine the weight of each indicator, and was combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Hefei City from 2005 to 2011. The results showed that the major factors that influenced the water resources car rying capacity of Hefei City were population and water resources utilized level. From 2005 to 2011, the water resources carrying ca pacity showed smooth increase, and the synthetic evaluation value of water carrying capacity was relatively small（about 0. 4）, which be longs to weak carrying capacity. The changes might mainly relate to the low utilized level of water resources, sharp increase of population and the development of economy. So it is suggested to effectively utilize the local water resource and construct the water conservancy from the further development of social economy and the ecological environment protection so as to enhance the utilization efficiency of water resources, which will provide theoretical basis for program management of water resources and related studies.

关 键 词：合肥市 水资源承载力 因子分析 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]