人的可靠性综合分析模式及应用  

Research and Application of Integrated Human Reliability Analysis Mode

作　　者：孙瑞山[1] 张思远[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《工业工程》2014年第2期49-54,共6页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61304207;U1333112);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2010CB734105)

摘　　要：提高系统可靠性的关键步骤是提高系统中人的可靠性,这需要对人的可靠性进行分析。当前分析人的可靠性主要依靠运用各类HRA模型,这些模型各有优缺点。为了研究航空人为差错,选取了具有代表性的3个HRA模型,对人的可靠性分析模型THERP(technique for human error rate prediction)、CREAM(cognitive reliability and error analysis method)、IDAC(information decision and action)进行了分析。将3种模型进行比较,找出它们的优劣之处,结合3种模型的优点,建立了以THERP模型、CREAM模型以及IDAC模型为主体的人的可靠性综合分析模式,并将该分析模式在航空人为差错分析上进行了应用,并给出实例说明该分析模式的应用。Enhancing human reliability is the key process for enhancing system reliability. Hence, it is necessary to analyze human reliability. Currently, various human reliability analysis （HRA） models are used to accomplish this goal. However, these models have their own limits. In order to analyze human er- rors in aviation, three HRA models are applied, including technique for human error rate prediction （THERP） , cognitive reliability and error analysis method （CREAM）, and information decision action in a crew （IDAC） , compared and eventually combined. By establishing an integrated model which makes use of three models＇ advantages, the human errors in aviation can be effectively analyzed. An example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

关 键 词：综合分析模式 人失误率预测 认知可靠性 航空安全 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]