中国建设用地扩张的驱动力分析  

Analysis on Driving Forces for Construction Land Expansion in China

作　　者：王世忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学工商管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2014年第8期1-5,59,共6页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371187);教育部人文社科青年基金(13YJC630220);浙江省自然科学基金(LY13D010004);浙江省教育厅基金(Y201222850)

摘　　要：研究目的:研究建设用地扩张的驱动力。研究方法:基于改进C-D生产函数修正的STIRPAT模型和岭回归方法。研究结果:在其他条件相同的情况下,总人口每增加1%,将导致建设用地增加0.211 0%,城市化率每提高1%,将导致建设用地增加0.054 2%,人均可支配收入每提高1%,将导致建设用地增加0.025 5%;货币资本投入每增加1%,将导致建设用地增加0.015 7%。研究结论:(1)人口增长是中国建设用地扩张的最主要驱动力。(2)城市化是中国建设用地扩张的重要驱动力,城市化率的提高并没有导致建设用地总量的减少。(3)社会富裕水平和建设用地总面积之间不存在环境Kuznets曲线。(4)货币资本和建设用地之间的替代关系不明显,技术进步对土地集约利用水平提高的促进作用远远没有发挥出来。In this paper,in order to explore the driving forces of construction land expansion,improved C-D production function、improved STIRPAT model and ridge regression were used to analyze the relationship be-tween China’s construction land and population、GDP、urbanization rate、capital input、labor input、technical progress、social affluence level during the period 1985 to 2008.The results indicate that： When the other conditions are the same,each increase of 1% of the total population will lead to the increase of construc-tion land 0.2110%,each increase of 1% of the urbanization rate will lead to the increase of construction land 0.054 2%,each increase of 1% of the per capita disposable income,will lead to the increase of con-struction land 0.025 5%,each increase of 1% of the monetary capital input,will lead to the increase of construction land 0.015 7%.It is concluded that：（1）Population growth is the main driving force of construc-tion land expansion.（2）Urbanization rate is the important driving force of construction land expansion.Al-though the city construction land intensive and economical utilization level is far greater than the rural ,the rise in percentage of population residing in urban areas does not lead to reduce the total amount of con-struction land.（3）There is no environmental Kuznets curve between construction land and social affluence level,and with the increase of social wealth,the construction land demand has been increasing year by year. （4）There is no obvious substitution relationship between money capital and construction land.The role of technical progress to promote the level of land intensive utilization is performing far under capacity ,and the speed of technical improvement is far greater than the one to improve the construction land intensive use level.

关 键 词：建设用地 改进C-D生产函数 改进STIRPAT模型 岭回归 驱动力 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]