我国粮食供需的分析与预测  

Analysis and Forecast of China's Grain Supply and Demand

作　　者：赵萱[1] 邵一珊[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系,北京100971 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2014年第3期277-280,共4页Research of Agricultural Modernization

摘　　要：随着我国人口的持续增长,粮食需求呈现刚性增长;而随着工业化、城镇化的快速发展,非农业建设用地不断增加,我国的耕地供给不断减少。未来一段时期,我国将面临越来越大的粮食短缺问题,保障粮食安全面临着严峻的挑战。正是在这样的情况下,本文探讨了粮食的内涵介绍了我国粮食需求的构成情况;采用GARCH模型、ARMA模型对我国未来的粮食供需情况进行了预测。通过对近年来的数据分析发现确实存在粮食短缺,并在此基础上提出了保持合理的粮食进口规模与进出口品种结构、重视和发展本国粮食生产、搞活粮食流通体制的政策建议。The continuous growth of China＇s population is making its food demand growth more and more rigid; while the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization is resulting in a rapid increase of the non-agricultural construction land and thus decrease of the arable land. For a period of time in the future, China will face an increasingly serious food shortage, and its food security is facing the same challenges. It is in consideration of such a background that this paper first investigates the connotation of food and the composition of China＇s food demand, and then applies GARCH model and ARMA model to make a forecast of the future status of China＇ s food demand and supply. Via the analysis of recent data, this paper did find a food shortage of China, and on the basis of it proposes several policy recommendations consisting of maintaining a reasonable scale of food import and product structure of food import and export, concentrating on and developing national food production and livening the food circulation system.

关 键 词：粮食供需 预测 粮食流通 扩大生产 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]