房产税能够降低房价吗——基于DID方法对我国房产税试点的评估  

Can Property Tax Lower Housing Price? An Assessment of China's Pilot Property Tax Based on the DID Method

作　　者：王家庭[1] 曹清峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学中国城市与区域经济研究中心,天津300071 [2]南开大学城市与区域经济研究所,天津300071

出　　处：《当代财经》2014年第5期34-44,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：基于2006-2012年全国35个大中城市的面板数据,利用DID(倍差法)检验了上海、重庆房产税试点对商品房价格、商品房中住宅价格以及住宅中高档住宅价格的影响。研究发现,我国房产税试点中不存在明显的政策预期效应;房产税试点显著降低了住宅价格,但对商品房价格和高档住宅价格影响不显著。因此,对房地产市场调控而言,仅仅依赖房产税政策将存在较大的局限性,需结合其他手段进行综合调控。Based on the 2006-2012 panel data of 35 cities nationwide, this paper makes use of the DID （difference-in-difference） method to examine the impact of the pilot property tax carried out in Shanghai and Chongqing on the real estate prices of commercial buildings, residential houses in the commercial buildings and luxury residential houses. The study finds that there exists no obvious expected policy effect at the pilot cities. The pilot property tax has significantly lowered housing prices, but the impact on the prices of commercial buildings and luxury residential houses is not significant. Therefore, the regulation on the real estate market will be greatly limited if it relies solely on the real estate tax policy; the regulation should be carried out comprehensively by integrating with other means.

关 键 词：房产税 商品房价格 高档住宅价格 DID方法 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]