中国港口煤炭库存影响因素研究  

Research on influencing factors of coal stockpiles in China's ports

作　　者：王晓燕[1,2] 杨洋[1] 周小波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京市海淀区100083 [2]神华和利时信息技术有限公司,北京市东城区100011

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2014年第5期15-18,共4页China Coal

摘　　要：从运输、需求、供给、价格4个方面创建了影响我国港口煤炭库存的有关因素的计量模型。利用2011年1月至2013年6月的月度数据揭示了相关因素的量化影响作用,发现环渤海煤炭价格、煤炭产量以及港口煤炭运输量等是最为显著的影响因素,揭示了各影响因素对港口煤炭库存的差异作用,以及这种差异性的变化。最后,综合宏观经济环境、煤炭市场力量演化以及行为经济学等原因对模型结果进行了剖析,提出了管理启示。Based on the 4 factors of transportation, demand, supply and price influencing coal stockpiles in China＇s ports, this paper creates an econometric model. With monthly data in the period from Jan 2011 to Jun 2013, the paper reveals the quantization effects of the relevant factors and believes that among those factors, coal price in the Bohai Rim, coal output and coal port transportation volume are the most significant ones. It reveals the various impacts of the fac- tors on coal stockpiles and how those variances change. In the end, combining with the macro-e- conomic environment, coal market forces evolution, behavioral economics and other reasons, the paper conducts a analysis on the model results and presents some management advices.

关 键 词：港口煤炭库存 库存预测 影响因素 中国 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程]