工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系的实证研究——以河南省为例  

An Empirical Study on Interaction of Industrialization,Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization——Taking Henan Province as an example

作　　者：刘战伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]许昌学院经济与管理学院,河南许昌461000

出　　处：《宁波广播电视大学学报》2014年第1期66-69,110,共5页Journal of Ningbo Radio & TV University

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(08AJY039);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJA790214);河南省政府决策招标课题(2013B295);许昌学院校内科研基金项目(2014038)

摘　　要：工业化、城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展是实现现代化建设,落实科学发展观的客观要求。采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等方法,分析了1978-2010年河南省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化之间的互动关系。结果表明:河南省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化之间存在长期均衡关系;工业化与城镇化互为因果关系,工业化是农业现代化的格兰杰原因,而农业现代化是城镇化的格兰杰原因;脉冲响应结果表明工业化与城镇化对农业现代化的影响表现均为负效应,城镇化对工业化的影响持续增强。因此,河南省要实现"三化"协调发展,必须强化农业现代化的基础地位,以工业化为主导,发挥城镇化的引领作用。The coordinated development ofindnstrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is to realize the modernization construction, and the objective requirements of the implementation of the scientific concept on development. This project uses contegration analysis, Granger causality test, and impulse response analysis method to analyze the interaction of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Henan Province from 1978 to 2010. The results show that there is a longterm equilibrium relationship between？ Henan Province industrialization, ？ urbanization and agricultural modernization; industrialization and urbanization exit？ reciprocal causation relationship, ？ industrialization is the Granger cause of agricultural modernization, agricultural modernization is the Grainger reason？ of urbanization; impulse response results show that the effects of industrialization and urbanization are negative effects of agricultural modernization,the urbanization on the impact of the industrialization continued to improve. Therefore, to achieve the harmonious development of three conversions, Hvnan Province muststrengthen the fundamental status of agricultural modernization, regard industrialization as the center, and play a leading role in urbanization.

关 键 词：工业化 城镇化 农业现代化 协整检验 

分 类 号：F291.3[经济管理—国民经济]