基于分形理论的居民消费价格指数预测  

The Consumer Price Index Prediction Based on Fractal Theory

作　　者：刘清志[1] 邢梓 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《河南科学》2014年第4期645-649,共5页Henan Science

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(14CX06021B)

摘　　要：随着我国经济的迅速发展,物价水平明显升高,居民的正常生活受到了很大影响.以居民消费价格指数(CPI)为研究对象,运用分形理论的相关预测知识,分析了我国2000—2011年的居民消费价格指数走势,结合散点图得出CPI指数还会持续上升的结论.在此基础上分析了CPI指数上升的原因,从政策和市场等方面提出相应措施以合理控制物价,确保市场运作的协调统一.With the rapid development of China’s economy,the price level has increased significantly,the normal life of the residents has been greatly affected. Based on the consumer price index（CPI）,by using the related predict knowledge of the fractal theory,we analysed the trend of the consumer price index of China during 2000-2011,and concluded that the CPI index will continue to rise combined with the scatter plot. We also summarized the reasons for the increasing of CPI according to the result,and proposed measures from the aspects of policies and market in order to control the price level reasonably and to ensure the harmonization of the market operation.

关 键 词：预测 分形理论 居民消费价格指数 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]