入境国际航行船舶传染病防控风险评估指标体系构建  

The establishment of a risk assessment and index system for the prevention and control of infectious diseases introduced via international ocean transportation

作　　者：蔡朝锦 周德亮 陈建国 

机构地区：[1]温州出入境检验检疫局卫生检疫处,浙江温州325027 [2]温州出入境检验检疫局机场办事处,浙江温州325027

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2014年第10期1738-1741,1747,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：浙江出入境检验检疫局科研计划项目(项目名称:基于AHP-模糊评判法的海港口岸传染病防控风险的评估技术研究;编号:ZK201210)

摘　　要：目的研究建立入境国际航行船舶传染病防控风险的评估指标体系。方法采用德尔菲法确定评估的指标体系,通过2轮专家咨询修改指标体系,筛选指标,确立指标体系;应用层次分析法计算指标权重,形成判断矩阵并进行一致性检验。结果第1轮、第2轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为95.00%,84.21%,专家权威系数为(0.85±0.03)。第2轮咨询Kendall′s W=0.455,χ2=298.42(P<0.001),具有统计学意义。通过2轮专家咨询建立了国境口岸传染病防控风险的综合评价指标体系,包括3个一级指标、14个二级指标和42个三级指标;应用AHP法确定了各指标的权重,各判断矩阵的一致性检验结果 CR均<0.10,具有较好逻辑一致性。结论本研究专家积极性、权威程度和意见协调性均较高,表明指标的可信度较高,同时建立的指标体系结构合理,包含了船舶传染病防控检疫工作的核心内容,具有较强的针对性。Objective The study aimed to establish a risk assessment and index system for the prevention and control of infectious diseases introduced via international ocean transportation. Methods The Delphi method was adopted to confirm the index system to be evaluated, which was screened, modified, and confirmed according to two rounds of expert consultation. Analytical hierarchy process （AHP） was used to weigh the indexes, generate judgment matrixes, and examine the consistency. Results The expert ag- gressiveness coefficients for the first and second rounds of consultation were 95.00% and 84.21%, respectively; and the expert au- thority coefficient was 0.85 ±0.03. For the second round of consultation, Kendall＇s W=0.455 and Х^2=-298.42 （P〈0.001）; the numbers were statistically significant. After two rounds of expert consultation, a comprehensive risk assessment system for the prevention and control of infectious diseases introduced via frontier ports was established, which included 3 Class Ⅰ, 14 Class Ⅱ, and 42 Class Ⅲ indexes. The weight of each index was calculated by AHP, and the consistency of each judgment matrix CR was lower than 0.1, suggesting that the index system exhibited good logical consistency. Conclusion Aggressiveness, level of authority, and coordination of opinions of the experts in this study are high, demonstrating a good reliability of the indexes. Meanwhile, the established index system included the core contents of the inspection and prevention and control of infectious diseases introduced via international ocean transportation, and is thus rationally structured and highly targeting.

关 键 词：国际航行船舶 传染病防控 指标体系 德尔菲法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：R185.32[医药卫生—流行病学]