地震预测方法Ⅱ:评述  

Earthquake prediction methods Ⅱ:comment

作　　者：赵永红[1] 王航[1] 杨家英[1] 惠红军[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学地球物理学系,北京100871

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2014年第2期630-637,共8页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40872133;40821062;41274094)资助

摘　　要：本文分析了各种地震预测方法对地震的预测情况.首先通过岩石力学实验和有限元模拟计算结果分析了含裂纹岩石材料的变形破坏过程;其次,将实验室岩石破坏过程的观测结果和有限元模拟计算结果外推到地壳岩石的变形破坏过程,从地震发生的物理力学机理出发,对多种地震预测方法进行了评述,研究这些地震预测方法的有效性和尚待解决的问题,同时对利用物理化学方法预测地震的前景进行了讨论.Earthquake prediction methods were evaluated and commented in this paper. First of all, the deformation and failure process of the rock were analysed based on experimental rock mechanics and finite element calculation. Then, the physical and mechanical mechanisms of earthquake precursor were studied based on the rock failure experiments in the lab and the results of finite element simulation. We also reviewed various earthquake prediction methods to investigate their physical mechanism and the relationship with earthquake prediction, and discussed the prospected physical and chemical methods which would be used to predict earthquake.

关 键 词：地震预测方法 评述 岩石力学实验 有限元模拟 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]