泰国:脆弱民主制的灾难性后果——基于SPS震荡波理论的解析  

Looking at Thailand: The Disastrous Consequences of Fragile Democracy——Analysis based on the SPS Shock Wave Theory

作　　者：刘霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院

出　　处：《学术前沿》2014年第7期13-20,共8页Frontiers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大计划重点项目"面向非常规突发事件应急管理的风险理论与方法"的阶段性成果;项目批准号:91324202

摘　　要：泰国政局的持续动荡表明先天不足的泰式民主已经走入死胡同。泰国政治危机的根源是以他信为代表的新兴政治家族与长期"统而不治"的泰国王室的权力博弈。泰国近十年来的政局动荡表现为议会内的政党之争、红黄(衫军)的街头对抗等多种形式。本文以SPS震荡波理论为分析框架,发现S波因子和P波因子在泰国危机中都是核心表现要素,尤其是P波因子在2013年12月以来的社会动荡中得到准确的诠释。这些S波因子和P波因子交织在一起,互相影响、交互作用,形成了上下颠簸、左右摇荡的震荡传导,使泰国的社会危机和政治动荡愈演愈烈,造成了前所未有的困境。The continued political unrest in Thailand shows that the deficient Thai democracy has entered a ＂dead-end road＂. The root cause of the Thai political crisis lies in the power g-ame between the emerging political families with Thaksin as the representative and the royal family of Thailand which has not governed the country for long. The political disturbances in Thailand in the recent ten years include the dispute between the parties in the parliament and the confrontation between the red and yellow shirts protesters on the street. Adopting the SPS shock wave theory as the analysis framework, dais essay found that the S wave fhctor and the P wave thctor are the core performance thctors in the Thai crises, especially the P wave thctor which has been accurately interpreted in all social turmoil since December 2013. These S wave thctors and P wave factors are interwoven together and interact with each other, which forms a vertical and horizontal shock transmission mode, intensifies Thai social crisis and political turmoil and causes unprecedented difficult situation.

关 键 词：SPS 震荡波理论 社会危机 政治博弈 利益集团 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学]