基于不确定需求与产出的计划生产量决策  

Planned Production Decisions Based on Uncertain Demand and Yield

作　　者：谢祥添[1,2] 张毕西[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院,广东广州510520 [2]广东理工职业学院管理工程系,广东广州510091

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第9期55-63,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"适应复杂需求的SMPEs运营作业系统管理与优化研究"(71271060);订单式生产人工作业系统(MTO/MOS)组织与优化研究(70971026);广东省自然科学基金"复杂需求环境下小型制造企业作业系统组织与优化研究"(S2012010009278);广东理工职业学院资助项目:基于复杂环境下中小型企业标准化生产运营系统优化研究(1321)

摘　　要：在复杂多交的市场环境下和生产过程易受多种随机因素影响,产品的需求和产出往往具有不确定性.考虑不确定需求和产出的情况,建立起以最小期望成本(包括生产成本、缺货成本和超产成本)为目标函数,计划生产量为决策变量的决策模型.通过利用费马定理和极值第二充分条件对计划生产量决策模型分析,提出了最优计划生产量必须满足的方程和证明了模型是凹函数,存在着最小期望成本.最后通过数值实例验证了模型的有效性.In the complex and volatile market environment, as well as the production process affected by a variety of random factors, the demand and yield of product is often uncertainty. Considering the uncertain demand and yield, building up the planned production decisions model with the minimum expected cost （including production costs, out of stock costs and over fulfill costs） as the objective function and the planned production as the decision variables. And then through using Fermat＇s theorem and the second of extreme value sufficient condition to analyze the model, putting forward an equation which the optimal planned production must satisfy and proving that the model is a concave function and it has a minimum expected cost. At last the validity of the model is verified by examples.

关 键 词：不确定需求和产出 计划生产量 随机分布 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F273