我国经济中长期趋势及政策取向  

China Economy Growth Trend and the Optional Economic Policy

作　　者：李文明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行南宁中心支行,广西南宁530028

出　　处：《区域金融研究》2014年第4期78-81,共4页Journal of Regional Financial Research

摘　　要：从中长期经济增长趋势特征看,根据HP滤波方法刻画的潜在产出曲线,中国经济持续高增长的条件已经发生变化,潜在产出增长率在2006年达到阶段性历史高位后逐年下降。基于工业化、城镇化、区域协调发展等因素,以及高储蓄率对高投资率的支持,中期内我国投资增长仍将保持较强的惯性。然而,长期增长则取决于全要素生产率的提高。鉴于我国结构性问题突出,需要重视运用供给管理政策,加强薄弱环节建设。When researching China long-term economy growth trend, according to potential output curve drawing with H-P filter, the conditions have changed for China economy to keeping sustained highly growing rate. The potential output growth rate reached the top and then declined yearly. Benefited from industrialization, urbanization, region- al coordinated development and high saving rate, China investment will remain the inertia as highly growth rate in the medium-term. However, the long-term growth will be decided by the TFP. China must attach importance to supply management policy because of structural problems and strenghthen the construction in weak areas.

关 键 词：经济增长 潜在产出 供给管理政策 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济] F224