水稻“双季”改“单季”害虫种群数量变动规律与数学模型研究  

The Change Law and Mathematical Model Analysis of Rice Pest Population After Changing ‘Double Cropping' to ‘Single Cropping'

作　　者：汪恩国 刘伟明[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省临海市植物保护站,浙江临海317000 [2]浙江省台州科技职业学院,浙江黄岩318020

出　　处：《农学学报》2014年第3期14-19,38,共7页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：台州市科学技术重大贡献奖项目"单季稻高产高效栽培技术研究--水稻"双季"改"单季"主要农艺与病虫发生危害规律及防控技术";台政办发[2010]124号

摘　　要：为了揭示双季稻-单双并存-单季稻耕作制度渐进变化害虫种群数量变动规律,于1990—2012年通过4个监测点应用灯诱和赶蛾方法对水稻害虫种群结构及构成数量进行系统跟踪监测研究,结果表明水稻主要害虫随双季稻向单季稻制度渐进变化其害虫种群构成从9种演变成8种;其种群数量变动呈周期性波型曲线变化,波动周期W型9～10年或V型4～5年,不同耕作制度波动呈＂三角＂变化并以单双并存制度为趋高运行状态;经数值化函数模拟,创建种群数量变动数学模型二化螟为F=-9.9459t2＋158.54t＋1920（r=0.5648＊＊）,稻纵卷叶螟为M=-9545.5t2＋338203t-2442510（r=0.7741＊＊）,稻飞虱为N1=502.9t2-7097.8t＋24522（1990—2006时段r=0.8050＊＊）和N2=3122t2-133157t＋1423018（2006—2012时段r=0.8191＊）。一系列建模对提升当前单季稻害虫整体监测预警水平具有重要指导意义。In order to investigate the quantitative change law of rice pest population during the gradual changesof cultivation systems from double-cropping, the coexistence of single and double cropping to single-cropping,four monitoring points were designed to track and study the pest population structure and constitution numbersystematically between 1990 and 2012 using light trap and driving pests. The results were as follows： thenumber of pest species for rice was reduced to 8 from 9. The change law of pest population showed periodicitywaveform curve change and the fluctuation cycles of W type and ~ type were 9-10 years and 4-5 years,respectively. While the fluctuation of different cultivation systems showed triangular change and the cultivationsystem of coexistence of single and double cropping was at a high operating model. Also, three mathematicalmodels were constructed based on the numerical function simulation： striped rice borer[F=-9.9459t% 158.54t＋ 1920 （r=0.5648＂）], rice leaf folder [M=-9545.5 t= 338203 t-2442510 （r=0.7741＂）], ricehopper [Nt=502.9f-7097.8t＋24522 （from 1990 to 2006：N =0.8050＂）] and Ne=3122f-133157t＋ 1423018 （from2006 to 2012： r=0.8191＂）. All these mathematical models would have an important guiding significance forsingle cropping rice pest monitoring and warning.

关 键 词：水稻 耕作制度 病虫种群 变动规律 数学模型 

分 类 号：S435.112.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]