广东不同种植周期香蕉风害风险对比  

Comparison of Guangdong's Wind Damage Risk for Bananas of Different Planting Cycles

作　　者：翟志宏[1] 黄俊[1,2] 郑璟[1] 刘锦銮[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广州510080 [2]广东省农业气象试验站,广东佛山528200

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第7期208-213,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项"特色林果气象灾害监测预警关键技术"(GYHY201106024)

摘　　要：本研究可揭示不同种植周期香蕉风害风险差异,为香蕉种植选择合理种植周期、风害风险评估、制定防风减灾决策提供科学依据。利用香蕉主产区代表站点的逐日极大风速数据,根据香蕉种植周期及风害指标,采用趋势分析、对比分析方法对春植和秋植香蕉风害日数、概率进行分析。结果表明:番禺、高州、徐闻3个地区平均大风日数分别为1.9、3.7、3.9天,番禺、徐闻的大风日数变化不显著,高州大风日数则以3.7 d/10 a的速率显著减少;平均91%的大风日发生于4—10月,涵盖了秋植香蕉抽蕾—收获期的4—8月;秋植香蕉中度风害概率为:番禺0.33、高州0.73、徐闻0.73,重度风害概率:番禺0、高州0.47、徐闻0.20,秋植香蕉风害概率高于春植香蕉,主要原因是秋植香蕉抽蕾—收获期风害较多。总体秋植香蕉风害风险高于春植香蕉,主产区风害风险大小是:高州>徐闻>番禺。Study on wind hazard level for banana of different planting cycles is important for choosing suitable planting cycle and taking disaster preventing and mitigating measures. The author used daily extreme wind speed data from representative meteorological stations of Guangdong＇s 3 main banana producing areas to construct wind hazard index for different planting cycles and then analyzed the wind hazard days for springplant and autumn-plant bananas, using methods of trend analysis and comparative analysis. The results showed that： average gale days for Panyu, Gaozhou and Xuwen were 1.9, 3.7 and 3.9, respectively. From 1997 to 2012, Gaozhou＇s gale days had decreased by 3.7 d/10 a, while Panyu and Xuwen＇s gale days had not change significantly. On average, 91% of the windy days occurred during April to October, which covered autumn-plant banana＇s budding phase and harvesting phase（April to August）; probabilities of medium wind hazard for autumn-plant banana for Panyu, Gaozhou and Xuwen were 0.33, 0.73 and 0.73, respectively. The numbers of heavy wind hazard for 3 regions were 0, 0.47 and 0.20, respectively. Generally, autumn-plant bananas had higher exposure, comparing with spring-plant bananas, because there were more wind hazard during autumn-plant bananas＇ budding phase and harvesting phase. As for the three main banana producing areas, Gaozhou had the highest wind risk, Xuwen the second highest and Panyu the lowest.

关 键 词：香蕉 风害风险 对比分析 种植周期 广东省 

分 类 号：S668.1[农业科学—果树学]