松毛虫发生面积与大气环流特征量指数模型研究  

Study on the Model Between the Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus spp. and the Characteristic Quantity Indexes of Atmospheric Circulation

作　　者：张淑杰[1] 张玉书[1] 肖燕 李晶 武晋雯[1] 纪瑞鹏[1] 刘庆婺[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,沈阳110016 [2]辽宁省林业有害生物防治检疫局,沈阳110001 [3]辽宁省气象科学研究所,沈阳110016

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第7期297-301,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国气象局公益性行业科研专项"森林草原病虫害气象预报与灾损评估技术"(GYHY200906028)

摘　　要：为了指导东北地区松毛虫防治工作,有效控制松毛虫发生,最大限度地减轻其对林业生产和生态安全的危害。对2002—2012年东北地区松毛虫发生面积与前1年6月至当年5月74项大气环流指数特征值进行相关分析,筛选出与东北各省区及不同虫种松毛虫发生有显著关系的大气环流指数因子,采用逐步回归方法建立东北及3省1区松毛虫、不同虫种松毛虫发生面积预测预报模型,并对模型进行了检验。结果表明:模型的拟合和延伸预报效果均较好,2010—2012年东北及各省区、不同虫种松毛虫发生面积大气环流预报准确率除吉林为70%外,其余预报准确率都在80%以上。In order to guide the prevention and control of Dendrolimus spp. in northeast China, the effective control of Dendrolimus spp. occurrence, and reduce the harm to the forestry production and ecological security, the author analyzed the relationships between occurrence area attacked by Dendrolimus spp. in northeastern China during 2002-2012 and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation from previous June to current May. The factors of atmospheric circulation which were significant related with Dendrolimus spp. occurrence were selected. The occurrence area forecast models concerning atmospheric circulation were established by stepwise regression method and verified separately. The results showed that： the occurrence area attacked by Dendrolimus spp. could be preferably simulated and predicted by these models. The forecast accuracy reached above 80%, in addition to Jilin to 70% by various provinces of northeastern China and different kinds of Dendrolimus spp. occurrence area atmospheric circulation model through extending prediction for 2010-2012.

关 键 词：松毛虫 发生面积 大气环流指数 预测模型 

分 类 号：S431.2[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]