中国木质家具产业贸易流量与贸易潜力分析——基于面板数据的引力模型研究  

Trade Flows and Potentialities of China's Wood Furniture Products——Based on A Gravity Model of Panel Data

作　　者：陈忠[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福州350117 [2]福州外语外贸学院经济学院,福州350202

出　　处：《林业经济》2014年第5期71-77,共7页Forestry Economics

摘　　要：文章运用引力模型分析了中国木质家具产业的出口贸易流量,从总量层次和潜力类型两个角度就中国对20个贸易伙伴国的出口潜力进行估算分析。结果显示,当两国属于共同的贸易集团时,距离不是问题;当两国不属于共同的贸易集团时,距离是显著影响因素。同时,在出口潜力估算分析中,中国木质家具的出口总体表现为"贸易不足",但对巴拿马、印度、新加坡等8个国家则表现为"贸易过度"。因此,中国应在保持现有积极影响因素的基础上急需培育新的积极影响因素,促进中国木质家具贸易流量的增加,扩大中国木质家具市场,提高中国木质家具的行业竞争力。Trade flows of China＇ s wood furniture is analyzed on gravity model and export potentiality of China＇ s twenty partner countries is estimated from two points of viewtotal quantity and potential type. The results shows： if two countries are belong to certain common trade group, distance between two countries is not significant factors, if not, distance is. which influence trade flows of wood furniture export. Meanwhile, estimation of export potentiali ty shows insufficient trade flows in general, but excess trade flows for such countries as Panama, India, Singapore etc. China should cultivate new positive factors, promote wood furniture trade flows and enlarge markets and upgrading competitiveness ofChina＇s wood furniture industry.

关 键 词：木质家具产业 出口贸易流量 潜力 引力模型 

分 类 号：F426.8[经济管理—产业经济] F752F224